US to apologize for 26/11 attack on Pakistani Border Post. According to the New York Times, and Washington Post, the US is eating humble pie and has circulated an apology letter in Washington which is to be delivered to the Pakistani leadership by none other than the Commander of Centcom Gen. James Mattis. President Obama expressed regret but has not apologized for the incident. As expected the investigation melted into gobbledygook. Most of the other investigations conducted by the US Army never produced any tangible results or actions. Based on the historical record, the Pakistanis did not participate in the investigation, but did send their version of events–backed by evidence.

Pakistan closed down the NATO supply lines–which has hurt the American in the pocket book.

AP reports that “Pentagon figures ..show it is now costing about $104 million per month to send supplies. That is $87 million more per month than when the cargo moved through Pakistan”.

This and a combination of other factors related to the endgame have forces the US to eat crow. The New York Times reports that “The State Department is supporting a proposal circulating in the administration for the United States to issue a formal apology for the deaths of the Pakistani soldiers in the Nov. 26 airstrike by American gunships.

“We’ve felt an apology would be helpful in creating some space,” said an American official who has been briefed on the State Department’s view and who spoke on the condition of anonymity as internal discussions continued.”

Elections in the US, Russia, China, and Pakistan are creating less space to maneuver. The State Department has been the voice of sanity in the administration, whose Afghan and Pakistan policy is run by the Pentagon, and the generals on the ground in Afghanistan. Those generals face defeat in the Hindu Kush, and have a propensity to blame Pakistan. Their public rhetoric has derailed the relationship and brought it to a new nadir.

US Ambassador to Pakistan and Afghanistan, Mr. Marc Gross man will follow up with a trip to Pakistan and will be eating humble pie. However things will not return to business as usual, and relations will not be fixed instantly.

The matter is in the hands of the National Assembly of Pakistan which is re-evaluating the relationship with the US. The parliamentary debate on American policy was unlikely to start before Feb. 14. The debate is expected to be volatile and emotional. It is likely to last several days, and will focus on the findings of a cross-party parliamentary committee set up to re-evaluate the relationship with the United States.

After the debate in the National Assembly Pakistani officials will agree to sit down with American diplomats “to hammer out the contours of the new relationship, a process that diplomats say is likely to last many months. But some things are expected to be resolved immediately.” It is expected that the NATO will be charged a fee to use Pakistan roads and airspace. The free reign that the US had in the days of Raymond Davis will probably end.

According to Wikileaks, Mr. Zardari and General Kayani had approved the drone attacks. General Pasha is retiring, and the new General of the ISI may not allow help in the drone bombings. General Kayani is also retiring–and the new COAS may or may not be as compliant to US wishes as the current one. Pakistan will probably get a new government next year. It is expected that the PTI may get a large share of the seats. Both the PMLN and the PTI are more hawkish, and do not support the drone attacks. This will be a bone of contention with Washington. Shamsi airbase has been closed, but apparently the drones still take off from a base in Southern Afghanistan. The new government may put pressure on Mr. Karzai to cease these attacks. Kabul is heavily dependent on Islamabad, because Pakistan provides the only viable land route to Kabul. Despite much hullabaloo about alternative routes, none have actually materialized.

The Bonn conference without Pakistan has been a colossal failure. The new peace talks in Qatar will only bear fruit if Pakistan facilitates the talks. The policy from Delhi has been sane. It has clearly realized that the US will never be able to abandon Pakistan–so that realization has reduced its earlier over-reach in Afghanistan.

As the US tries to calm things down, a new source of tension is emerging in the relationship, one in wich Mr. Ralph Peters will be a prominent feature. The US Senate has called a meeting to discuss Balochistan. Some very unsavory characters will be called to the meeting and some very inflammatory comments will be made during an election year in both countries. The more than 80 TV channels in Pakistan will inflame this rudimentary Senate meting beyond all proportions. The Bharati media will pour oil on the fire. It will be hard for Washington to contain the backlash. It would be wise for Washington to postpone or cancel the meeting Balochistan. Nothing good will come out of it. If the US has any concerns, Washington to take them up in private meetings with the Baloch and with Islamabad.

The apology describes the sense of urgency in Washington, especially since Mr. Panetta has now publicly stated that the US will end all combat operations in 2013. This puts real bind on NATO and US forces. It will take several months to remove the US equipment which is scattered all over Pakistan. Pakistan will also put severe restrictions on the movement of intelligence services. The National Assembly has demanded that Washington submit a guarantee in writing that it is not interested in sequestering or behaving as a kleptomaniac on Pakistan’s Nuclear assets. In all probability the drone bombings will come to halt or will be severely curtailed. The US intentinos in Balochistan should also be part of the re-negotiations.

Some humble pie is good for a relations which has faced hubris and arrogance.
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